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Looking for Multiple Equilibria in Russian Urban System

Автор
Михайлова Татьяна Николаевна
 
Тип публикации
Препринт
 
Язык публикации
Русский
 
Издательство
:
 
Год
2013
 

Аннотация
This paper studies the effect of the shock to spatial population distribution in the USSR brought by the WWII and Stalinist policies. Using a unique data set on the number of WWII evacuees at the level of city or rural raion and the data on locations and size of Gulag labor camps I measure the impact on city growth during Stalin's time. I test whether these shocks were reversed after Stalin's death, when Gulag system was abolished and many restriction on population mobility were lifted, and find no evidence of mean-reversion on average. The city growth dynamics is consistent with multiple equilibria hypothesis: cities that received a lot of investment (as measured by the Gulag population) and many wartime evacuees in the 1930s-1950s, get a permanent growth spurt, while cities that received a smaller shock are more likely to revert to their original growth trajectory. I estimate the elasticity of the threshold shock to location fundamentals as measured by longitude and latitude, and find that it is harder to overcome inertia and make a city grow if it's located further to the north.

Ключевые слова
WWII, evacuation, Gulag, cities, USSR

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