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Публикация
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Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis

Автор
Зинькина Юлия Викторовна
 
Соавторы
Korotayev A.
 
Тип публикации
Статья
 
Язык публикации
Русский
 
Аффилиация
Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar
 
Издательство
Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar: Vol. 13.
 
Год
2011
 
Количество страниц
139
 
Количество п.л.
1.00
 

Аннотация
It is not surprising that Mubarak’s administration “overlooked” the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking serious measures to mitigate their effect on the poorest layers of the population. Unemployment level (in per cent) was less than in many developed countries of the world and, moreover, was declining, and so were population growth rates. What would be the grounds to expect a full-scale social explosion? Of course, the administration had a sort of reliable information on the presence of certain groups of dissident “bloggers”, but how could one expect that they would be able to inspire to go to the Tahrir any great masses of people? It was even more difficult to figure out that Mubarak’s regime would be painfully struck by its own modernization successes of the 1980s, which led to the sharp decline of crude death rate and especially of infant and child mortality in 1975–1990. Without these successes many young Egyptians vehemently demanding Mubarak’s resignation (or even death) would have been destined to die in early childhood and simply would not have survived to come out to the Tahrir Square.

Ключевые слова
Arab spring, Egyptian revolution, demography

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