Kondratieff Waves in Global Invention Activity (1900–2008)
Our study has revealed an unusually clear K-wave pattern in the dynamics of the number of patents granted annually in the world per 1 million of the world population. In general we seerather steady increases in the number of patent grants per million during K-wave A-phases("upswings"), and we observe its rather pronounced decreases during K-wave B-phases("downswings"). This pattern apparently goes counter to the logic suggested by Kondratieff,Schumpeter and their followers who expected the increases in the invention activities duringB-phases and their decreases during A-phases. However, this contradiction is shown to beonly apparent. We suggest an explanation that accounts for the detected pattern withoutcontradicting the essence of Kondratieff –Schumpeter theory.
Technology, Long waves, Kondratieff waves, Global dynamics, Patents, World ntellectual Property Organization