Репозиторий
Публикация
Print
Публикация
Print

Globalization and Mathematical Modeling of Global Evolution

Автор
Коротаев Андрей Витальевич
 
Тип публикации
Глава монографии
 
Язык публикации
Русский
 
Аффилиация
Evolution: Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms. Yearbook
 
Издательство
Volgograd: Uchitel
 
Год
2013
 
Количество страниц
69
 
Количество п.л. автора
1.00
 

Аннотация
It is demonstrated that the variation in demographic, economic and cultural macrodynamics of the world over the last ten millennia can be accounted for in a very accurate way by very simple mathematical models. It is shown that up to the 1970s the hyperbolic growth of the world population was accompanied by the quadratic-hyperbolic growth of the world GDP and these are very tightly connected processes, actually two dimensions of one process propelled by the nonlinear second order positive feedback loops between the technological development and demographic growth. The suggested approach throws a new light on our understanding of globalization processes. Against the background of the mathematical models discussed in the article, the fact that the world population growth followed the hyperbolic pattern in the 10 th– 1st millennia BCE indicates that the majority of the world population already functioned within a single system in that period. A few millennia before CE the World System covered only a small portion of the Earth landmass but already at that time it encompassed the majority of the world population. In the 3rd millennium, with the diffusion to East Asia of major Middle Eastern technological innovations which led to a radical growth of the carrying capacity and, hence, population in this part of the world, the World System incorporated East Asia, and by the end of the 1st millennium BCE the overwhelming majority of the world population lived just within the World System. Thus, most of the world population got ‘globalized’ many millennia before ‘the century of globalization’, though the World System had only encompassed the whole of the Earth landmass in the 2nd millennium CE.

Ключевые слова
mathematical modeling, evolution, global processes, the World System, demography, economic growth, technology, diffusion.

Контакты

СПРАВОЧНАЯ СЛУЖБА



Многоканальный телефон:
+7 499 956-99-99

E-mail:information@ranepa.ru
ПРИЕМНАЯ КОМИССИЯ
119571, г. Москва,
Проспект Вернадского, д. 84
Бакалавриат и специалитет:
Call-центр:
+7 499 956-99-99 (многоканальный)
Часы работы: 10.00 – 18.00

Магистратура:
Контакты приемных подкомиссий факультетов/институтов Академии
ПРЕСС-СЛУЖБА
119571, г. Москва,
Проспект Вернадского, д. 84, к. 2

Телефон:
+7 499 956-99-69



E-mail:press@ranepa.ru
Гостинично-жилой комплекс
119571, г. Москва,
Проспект Вернадского, д. 84, к. 2

Телефон:+7 499 956-00-44+7 495 434-33-25

E-mail: reserv@ranepa.ru

Президентская академия - лидирующий вуз России!