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Публикация
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Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

Автор
Коротаев Андрей Витальевич
 
Соавторы
Гринин Л.Е.
 
Тип публикации
Глава монографии
 
Язык публикации
Русский
 
Аффилиация
Kondratieff Waves. Dimensions and Perspectives at the Dawn of the 21st Century
 
Издательство
Volgograd: Uchitel
 
Год
2012
 
Количество страниц
23-64
 
Количество п.л.
2.50
 
Количество п.л. автора
1.50
 

Аннотация
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.

Ключевые слова
business cycles, forecasting cycles, economic cycles, Kondratieff waves, Kondratieff

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