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Globalization and Mathematical Modeling of Global Development

Автор
Коротаев Андрей Витальевич
 
Тип публикации
Глава монографии
 
Язык публикации
Русский
 
Аффилиация
Globalistics and Globalization Studies
 
Издательство
Moscow – Volgograd: Moscow University – Uchitel
 
Год
2012
 
Количество страниц
148
 
Количество п.л. автора
1.00
 

Аннотация
It is demonstrated that the variation in demographic, economic and cultural macrodynamics of the world over the last ten millennia can be accounted for in a very accurate way by very simple mathematical models. It is shown that up to the 1970s the hyperbolic growth of the world population was accompanied by the quadratic-hyperbolic growth of the world GDP and these are very tightly connected processes, actually two dimensions of one process propelled by the nonlinear second order positive feedback loops between the technological development and demographic growth. The suggested approach throws a new light on our understanding of globalization processes. Against the background of the mathematical models discussed in the article, the fact that the world population growth followed the hyperbolic pattern in the 10th– 1st millennia BCE indicates that the majority of the world population already functioned within a single system in that period. A few millennia before CE the World System covered only a small portion of the Earth landmass but already at that time it encompassed the majority of the world population. In the 3rd millennium BCE, with the diffusion to East Asia of major Middle Eastern technological innovations which led to a radical growth of the carrying capacity and, hence, population in this part of the world, the World System incor- porated East Asia, and by the end of the 1st millennium BCE the overwhelming majority of the world population lived just within the World System. Thus, most of the world population got ‘globalized’ many millennia before ‘the century of globalization’, though the World System had only encompassed the whole of the Earth landmass in the 2nd millennium CE.

Ключевые слова
mathematical modeling, global processes, the World System, demog- raphy, economic growth, technology, diffusion

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