Agri-food policy and information technology
On June 27, the Presidential Academy held a scientific workshop on the development and research of mathematical and statistical models in the justification of methods and tools of agri-food policy. The workshop was organized by the Center for Agri-Food Policy, RANEPA.
The event was moderated by Natalia Shagayda, Director of the Center for Agri-Food Policy, RANEPA. The report “Computer analysis of agri-food policy: opportunities, problems, applications” was made by Nikolai Svetlov, the lead researcher of the Center for Agri-Food Policy, RANEPA. The speaker stressed that there are a lot of methods of analysis of agri-food policy, but he would talk about quantitative analysis – the indicators that can be expressed in money, tons, etc. Speaking about the General task of computer analysis of agri-food policy, Nikolai Svetlov explained that, during the analysis, the experts consider two scenarios, which are then compared: with the use of the policy tool and without it.
The expert of the Center for Agri-Food Policy, RANEPA noted that, at the moment, the computer analysis of agri-food policy faces a number of various difficulties. These include: the inability to foresee all kinds of policies for the user that he will need to analyze; the problem of determining the set of products – the user is interested in one list today, and another tomorrow; as well as the complexity of updating the original data. Nikolay Svetlov presented examples of existing tools to the workshop participants: GTAP, Agmemod, Aglink-Cosimo, EPACIS, ESIM and the Model of regional Russian agricultural markets. The report of the expert was prepared in the framework of research project “The impact of agricultural exports on the agri-food sector of Russia”.
Anton Strokov, lead researcher of the Center for Agri-Food Policy, RANEPA, presented the report “Development of tools to justify agricultural policy for the purposes of sustainable development goals (SDG)”, which was prepared in the framework of research project “Evaluation of alternatives for agricultural development (intensification of land use or expansion of acreage)”. In his speech, the expert touched upon the results of work within the framework of the international project for the development of coordinated land policy measures for the purposes of the SDGs implemented under the auspices of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria). Anton Strokov spoke about the simulation model in Excel – FABLE tool, which was developed and adapted for Russia. He explained that the FABLE tool calculator helps to develop forecasts of balances of food resources, trade balance of food and agricultural products, the dynamics of changes in arable land and pastures, as well as greenhouse gas emissions.