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Foreign language Issue 4, 2018 of the analytical review – The Monitoring of Socio-Economic Situation and Perceptions of the Population

27 November2018
Foreign language Issue 4, 2018 of the analytical review – The Monitoring of Socio-Economic Situation and Perceptions of the Population

Foreign language Issue 4, 2018 of the analytical review – Monthly Monitoring of Socio-Economic Situation and Perceptions of the Population. Analytical material prepared by a pool of experts of the Institute for Social Analysis and Prediction of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

Main conclusions of the issue:

  • In October 2018, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published its second GDP estimate for Q2 2018, according to which the volume of Russia’s GDP in current prices over that period amounted to Rb 24,846.6bn. Its physical volume index was 101.9% relative to the same period of 2017, while the GDP deflator for Q2 2018 was 110.6% relative to prices in Q2 2017.
  • In August 2018, wholesale trade turnover amounted to Rb 6,846.7bn, or 101.6% relative to the same month of 2017; small entrepreneurship subjects accounted for 38.8% of wholesale turnover. In August 2018, retail trade turnover amounted to Rb 2,748.0bn, or 102.8% (in comparable prices) relative to the same period of the previous year.
  • The growth rate of retail lending volume continues to be significantly above that of bank loans issued to the real sector of the economy. Since the start of the year, the amount of outstanding debt against retail bank loans increased by 11.4%, while the corresponding index for loans issued by non-financial institutions gained only 4.6% over the period from 1 January to 1 September 2018. The main source of growth for retail loan portfolio was the housing mortgage lending sector, where the amount of outstanding debt since the start of the year increased by 15.5%, and its relative share in the combined loan portfolio of the banking sector increased from 42.5% to 44.0%.
  • In summer 2018, the tariffs for basic amenities were raised by 3.5% relative to December 2017, which is significantly less than a year earlier (then, the raise amounted to 4.5%). In H1 2018, 4.7% of all utility bills issued to households remained unpaid, compared with 4.8% a year earlier.
  • In summer 2018, the tariffs for basic amenities were raised by 3.5% relative to December 2017, which is significantly less than a year earlier (then, the raise amounted to 4.5%). In H1 2018, 4.7% of all utility bills issued to households remained unpaid, compared with 4.8% a year earlier.
  • In 2019, a two-stage raise of utility tariffs is planned – by 1.7% in January, and then by another 2.4% in July. The annual one-time raise of utility tariffs (in summer) has been practiced since 2012, to offset the seasonal leap of consumer inflation.
  • The social welfare programs designed to cover utility costs target 24% of the total population, and 5.7% of households receive utility subsidies. Overall, these two programs covered 14.2% of the total utility costs shouldered by households in H1 2018.
  • In August 2018, the number of persons in the labor force amounted to 76.9 million. The employment rate on the labor market has stayed at a higher level than last year.
  • The number of unemployed persons registered with the Federal Service for Labor and Employment in late August amounted to 679,000, which represents a 12% drop on the same month of the previous year.
  • In August 2018, the wage and salary level of employees, according to preliminary data released by Rosstat, amounted to Rb 41,140, which is 7.0% above the corresponding index for August 2017 in real terms.
  • In January-August of 2018, the share of income spent on goods and services in the structure of personal money income utilization amounted to 77.9%, which is higher than the corresponding indices observed over the same period in the last 15 years.
  • Households maintain their habitual level of consumption of goods and services by way of spending their savings and taking loans. In January-August 2018, the share of money income allocated towards savings amounted to 5.1%, thus hitting a record low of the last 15 years.
  • In H1 2018, the poverty index amounted to 13.6%, thus having declined on the period 2015-2017. Poverty decline was caused, among other things, by the slight growth of real income and the federal minimum wage, which was increased twice – in January and in May 2018.
  • The downward trend in the relative share of population believing that the economic situation in this country has stabilized continues to be manifest. The diversity of opinions has become more prominent: the number of those who think that the situation improved has increased, as did the number of those who are certain that it became worse.
  • The risks of a worsening employment situation have become more prominent, and so the number of employed persons in the high risk zone slightly increased.
  • An analysis of adaptation strategies of the population demonstrates slightly increased numbers of those who employ financial and labor strategies, and also those investing in human capital. The highest increase is observed in the group relying on their agricultural household produce as an adaptation strategy.

The Monitoring of Socio-Economic Situation and Perceptions of the Population. Issue 4, 2018

 

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