Gaidar Forum experts analyze political trends
The expert discussion, Political Trends – Assessment, Analysis, Forecast, which takes place at the Gaidar Forum every year, brought together a large number of specialists. At the beginning of the meeting, moderator Leonid Gozman, President, Perspektiva Fund, summed up the 2016 results. Experts traditionally gave forecasts for the year at the previous Gaidar Forum; political analyst Vladimir Gelman, whose forecast proved the most accurate, was given a prize by the moderator.
Gozman pointed out the major fault in most forecast for 2016: the liberal opposition lost the Duma election despite the expectations of at least a few parliament seats. “According to the questionnaires, the experts do not believe in a change of policy. They expect some sort of soft suppression policy to continue along with a gradual tightening of the screws. Political analysts do not believe the political course would change this year,” he said.
Anders Aslund, senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, said there is only a negligible demand for political change in Russian society: “no one is willing to fight for change.”
According to political analyst Vladimir Gelman, changes in the system are often overlooked or seen as a coincidence, not intentional transformations.
Anastasia Savinova, RANEPA
Organizers of the Gaidar Forum: “The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration” (RANEPA), The Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Gaidar Institute) and the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR).
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