.svg)
Тема диссертации
Assessment of the Risk of Loss of Social and Economic Development of the Municipality with the Help of Exponential Function
Авторы
Грахольская Людмила Владимировна
Тип публикации
Статья в сборнике научных трудов
Язык публикации
Английский
Название журнала/сборника
Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Издательство
John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Год
2022
Номера страниц
1481-1491
Количество страниц
1650
Аннотация
The article proposes a methodology for assessing the risk of loss of stability of the socio-economic development of a municipality based on an assessment of the probability of changing targets in the desired direction (on a given forecasting horizon). The latter is estimated using a four-parameter nonlinear trend model (called the exponential trend), summarizing linear, exponential and logistic trends. This model has high enough flexibility to describe the dynamics of various socio-economic indicators during the period of change in direction and type of trends, which is characteristic of modern Russia. In order to increase the reliability of estimating the parameters of the trend model using the nonlinear least squares method, the vectors of the starting parameters are set by chance. The probabilities of an indicator growth, both for individual moments of time and on average for the forecast interval, are determined by random vectors of parameters generated from a four-dimensional normal distribution found as a result of estimation. An example of the implementation of the methodology for assessing the sustainability of the development of the city of Saratov is given. The github site provides free access to the source code (for package R) and examples of implementation of the technique.
Включена в систему цитирования Web of Science
Нет
Включена в Scopus
Да
Из списка ВАК
Нет
Включена в РИНЦ
Нет
В рамках Госзадания
Нет
Ключевые слова
Sustainable development Municipality Risk Exponential trend Forecast Probability of growth
